Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Significant resources is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a capability afforded by current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its target.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
