A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. They authors two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has has something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
